Crop Production
Crop Production
ISSN: 1936-3737
Released February 8, 2024, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
Orange Production Down 1 Percent from January Forecast
The United States all orange forecast for the 2023-2024 season is
2.76 million tons, down 1 percent from the previous forecast but
up 11 percent from the 2022-2023 final utilization. The Florida all orange
forecast, at 19.8 million boxes (891,000 tons), is down 3 percent from the
previous forecast but up 25 percent from last season's final utilization. In
Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at
6.80 million boxes (306,000 tons), down 9 percent from the previous forecast
but up 11 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida Valencia
orange forecast, at 13.0 million boxes (585,000 tons), is unchanged from the
previous forecast but up 35 percent from last season's final utilization.
This report was approved on February 8, 2024.
Secretary of Agriculture
Designate
Alexis M. Taylor
Agricultural Statistics Board
Acting Chairperson
Lance Honig
Contents
Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2022-2023 and Forecasted
February 1, 2024......................................................................................... 4
Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use - States and United States: 2022 and 2023......... 5
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2023 and 2024.. 6
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2023 and 2024.... 8
Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2023 and 2024.............................. 10
Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2023 and 2024................................ 11
January Percent of Normal Precipitation Map.............................................................. 12
January Departure from Normal Temperature Map............................................................ 12
January Weather Summary.................................................................................. 13
January Agricultural Summary............................................................................. 13
Crop Comments............................................................................................ 14
Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 15
Reliability of February 1 Crop Production Forecasts...................................................... 15
Information Contacts..................................................................................... 16
Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2022-2023 and
Forecasted February 1, 2024
[The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of
harvest the following year]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Utilized production boxes 1/ :Utilized production ton equivalent
Crop and State :-----------------------------------------------------------------------
: 2022-2023 : 2023-2024 : 2022-2023 : 2023-2024
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: ------ 1,000 boxes ----- ------ 1,000 tons -----
Oranges :
California, all 2/ .........: 43,200 45,800 1,728 1,832
Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 36,500 38,000 1,460 1,520
Valencia ..................: 6,700 7,800 268 312
:
Florida, all ...............: 15,800 19,800 711 891
Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 6,150 6,800 277 306
Valencia ..................: 9,650 13,000 434 585
:
Texas, all 2/ ..............: 1,130 950 48 41
Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 570 600 24 26
Valencia ..................: 560 350 24 15
:
United States, all .........: 60,130 66,550 2,487 2,764
Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 43,220 45,400 1,761 1,852
Valencia ..................: 16,910 21,150 726 912
:
Grapefruit :
California 2/ ..............: 4,000 3,800 160 152
Florida, all ...............: 1,810 2,400 77 102
Texas 2/ ...................: 2,250 2,350 90 94
:
United States ..............: 8,060 8,550 327 348
:
Tangerines and mandarins 4/ :
California 2/ ..............: 23,700 22,000 948 880
Florida ....................: 480 550 23 26
:
United States ..............: 24,180 22,550 971 906
:
Lemons 2/ :
Arizona ....................: 1,400 900 56 36
California .................: 26,500 20,000 1,060 800
:
United States ..............: 27,900 20,900 1,116 836
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80,
Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80.
2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.
3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties
in Florida and Texas.
4/ Includes tangelos and tangors.
Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use - States and United States: 2022 and 2023
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Use and State : Area harvested : Yield per acre 1/ : Production 1/
:---------------------------------------------------------------------
: 2022 : 2023 : 2022 : 2023 : 2022 : 2023
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 acres ----- tons ----- --- 1,000 tons --
:
For sugar :
Florida ......................: 386.0 391.0 44.5 44.5 17,177 17,400
Louisiana 2/ .................: 474.0 484.0 32.1 28.5 15,215 13,794
Texas 2/ .....................: 30.9 16.2 22.6 22.7 698 368
:
United States ................: 890.9 891.2 37.1 35.4 33,090 31,562
:
For seed :
Florida ......................: 15.9 16.6 47.4 49.8 754 827
Louisiana 2/ .................: 23.1 24.6 35.5 32.4 820 797
Texas 2/ .....................: 0.3 2.6 24.6 24.7 7 64
:
United States ................: 39.3 43.8 40.2 38.5 1,581 1,688
:
For sugar and seed :
Florida ......................: 401.9 407.6 44.6 44.7 17,931 18,227
Louisiana 2/ .................: 497.1 508.6 32.3 28.7 16,035 14,591
Texas 2/ .....................: 31.2 18.8 22.6 23.0 705 432
:
United States ................: 930.2 935.0 37.3 35.6 34,671 33,250
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Net tons.
2/ Estimates are carried forward from an earlier estimate.
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States:
2023 and 2024
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous
reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2024 crop year. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Area planted : Area harvested
Crop :-------------------------------------------------------
: 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 acres
:
Grains and hay :
Barley .................................: 3,101 2,555
Corn for grain 1/ ......................: 94,641 86,513
Corn for silage ........................: (NA) 6,471
Hay, all ...............................: (NA) 52,821
Alfalfa ..............................: (NA) 15,634
All other ............................: (NA) 37,187
Oats ...................................: 2,555 831
Proso millet ...........................: 619 572
Rice ...................................: 2,894 2,854
Rye ....................................: 2,293 322
Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................: 7,195 6,115
Sorghum for silage .....................: (NA) 384
Wheat, all .............................: 49,575 37,272
Winter ...............................: 36,699 34,425 24,683
Durum ................................: 1,676 1,604
Other spring .........................: 11,200 10,985
:
Oilseeds :
Canola .................................: 2,344.5 2,319.2
Cottonseed .............................: (X) (X)
Flaxseed ...............................: 178 160
Mustard seed ...........................: 245.0 238.1
Peanuts ................................: 1,645.0 1,574.0
Rapeseed ...............................: 13.2 10.1
Safflower ..............................: 129.5 126.0
Soybeans for beans .....................: 83,600 82,356
Sunflower ..............................: 1,315.0 1,267.5
:
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops :
Cotton, all ............................: 10,230.0 7,064.6
Upland ...............................: 10,083.0 6,924.8
American Pima ........................: 147.0 139.8
Sugarbeets .............................: 1,137.4 1,127.3
Sugarcane ..............................: (NA) 935.0
Tobacco ................................: (NA) 187.6
:
Dry beans, peas, and lentils :
Chickpeas ..............................: 372.4 359.2
Dry edible beans .......................: 1,180.0 1,156.9
Dry edible peas ........................: 966.0 941.0
Lentils ................................: 546.0 523.0
:
Potatoes and miscellaneous :
Hops ...................................: (NA) 54.3
Maple syrup ............................: (NA) (NA)
Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) (NA)
Peppermint oil .........................: (NA) 31.3
Potatoes ...............................: 965.0 960.2
Spearmint oil ..........................: (NA) 12.2
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States:
2023 and 2024 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous
reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2024 crop year. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Yield per acre : Production
Crop :-------------------------------------------------------
: 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: ------ 1,000 ------
:
Grains and hay :
Barley ..........................bushels: 72.4 185,036
Corn for grain ..................bushels: 177.3 15,341,595
Corn for silage ....................tons: 20.1 129,994
Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.25 118,769
Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.19 49,916
All other ........................tons: 1.85 68,853
Oats ............................bushels: 68.6 57,045
Proso millet ....................bushels: 34.2 19,572
Rice 2/ .............................cwt: 7,649 218,291
Rye .............................bushels: 32.2 10,375
Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 52.0 317,745
Sorghum for silage .................tons: 13.0 4,981
Wheat, all ......................bushels: 48.6 1,811,977
Winter ........................bushels: 50.6 1,247,748
Durum .........................bushels: 37.0 59,329
Other spring ..................bushels: 46.0 504,900
:
Oilseeds :
Canola ...........................pounds: 1,793 4,157,420
Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 3,788.0
Flaxseed ........................bushels: 18.5 2,961
Mustard seed .....................pounds: 627 149,305
Peanuts ..........................pounds: 3,742 5,890,020
Rapeseed .........................pounds: 2,003 20,230
Safflower ........................pounds: 1,036 130,570
Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 50.6 4,164,677
Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,786 2,263,520
:
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops :
Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales: 845 12,434.0
Upland 2/ .......................bales: 841 12,127.0
American Pima 2/ ................bales: 1,054 307.0
Sugarbeets .........................tons: 31.2 35,226
Sugarcane ..........................tons: 35.6 33,250
Tobacco ..........................pounds: 2,305 432,452
:
Dry beans, peas, and lentils :
Chickpeas 2/ ........................cwt: 1,315 4,722
Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt: 2,067 23,910
Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt: 1,922 18,086
Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt: 1,098 5,742
:
Potatoes and miscellaneous :
Hops .............................pounds: 1,915 104,042.5
Maple syrup .....................gallons: (NA) 4,179
Mushrooms ........................pounds: (NA) 666,647
Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 90 2,811
Potatoes ............................cwt: 459 440,750
Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 126 1,541
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NA) Not available.
(X) Not applicable.
1/ Area planted for all purposes.
2/ Yield in pounds.
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States:
2023 and 2024
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from
previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2024 crop year. Blank data
cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Area planted : Area harvested
Crop :-------------------------------------------------------
: 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: hectares
:
Grains and hay :
Barley .........................: 1,254,940 1,033,980
Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 38,300,270 35,010,950
Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,618,750
Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) 21,376,130
Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 6,326,920
All other ....................: (NA) 15,049,210
Oats ...........................: 1,033,980 336,300
Proso millet ...................: 250,500 231,480
Rice ...........................: 1,171,170 1,154,990
Rye ............................: 927,950 130,310
Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,911,740 2,474,680
Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 155,400
Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 20,062,510 15,083,610
Winter .......................: 14,851,720 13,931,450 9,988,960
Durum ........................: 678,260 649,120
Other spring .................: 4,532,530 4,445,520
:
Oilseeds :
Canola .........................: 948,800 938,560
Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X)
Flaxseed .......................: 72,030 64,750
Mustard seed ...................: 99,150 96,360
Peanuts ........................: 665,720 636,980
Rapeseed .......................: 5,340 4,090
Safflower ......................: 52,410 50,990
Soybeans for beans .............: 33,832,080 33,328,650
Sunflower ......................: 532,170 512,940
:
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops:
Cotton, all 2/ .................: 4,139,980 2,858,970
Upland .......................: 4,080,490 2,802,400
American Pima ................: 59,490 56,580
Sugarbeets .....................: 460,290 456,210
Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 378,390
Tobacco ........................: (NA) 75,930
:
Dry beans, peas, and lentils :
Chickpeas ......................: 150,710 145,360
Dry edible beans ...............: 477,530 468,190
Dry edible peas ................: 390,930 380,810
Lentils ........................: 220,960 211,650
:
Potatoes and miscellaneous :
Hops ...........................: (NA) 21,980
Maple syrup ....................: (NA) (NA)
Mushrooms ......................: (NA) (NA)
Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 12,670
Potatoes .......................: 390,530 388,580
Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 4,940
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States:
2023 and 2024 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous
reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2024 crop year. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Yield per hectare : Production
Crop :-------------------------------------------------------
: 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: metric tons
:
Grains and hay :
Barley .................................: 3.90 4,028,680
Corn for grain .........................: 11.13 389,694,460
Corn for silage ........................: 45.03 117,928,570
Hay, all 2/ ............................: 5.04 107,745,420
Alfalfa ..............................: 7.16 45,283,030
All other ............................: 4.15 62,462,390
Oats ...................................: 2.46 828,010
Proso millet ...........................: 1.92 443,890
Rice ...................................: 8.57 9,901,510
Rye ....................................: 2.02 263,540
Sorghum for grain ......................: 3.26 8,071,090
Sorghum for silage .....................: 29.08 4,518,690
Wheat, all 2/ ..........................: 3.27 49,313,930
Winter ...............................: 3.40 33,958,140
Durum ................................: 2.49 1,614,670
Other spring .........................: 3.09 13,741,130
:
Oilseeds :
Canola .................................: 2.01 1,885,770
Cottonseed .............................: (X) 3,436,420
Flaxseed ...............................: 1.16 75,210
Mustard seed ...........................: 0.70 67,720
Peanuts ................................: 4.19 2,671,670
Rapeseed ...............................: 2.25 9,180
Safflower ..............................: 1.16 59,230
Soybeans for beans .....................: 3.40 113,343,930
Sunflower ..............................: 2.00 1,026,720
:
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops :
Cotton, all 2/ .........................: 0.95 2,707,180
Upland ...............................: 0.94 2,640,340
American Pima ........................: 1.18 66,840
Sugarbeets .............................: 70.05 31,956,490
Sugarcane ..............................: 79.72 30,163,890
Tobacco ................................: 2.58 196,160
:
Dry beans, peas, and lentils :
Chickpeas ..............................: 1.47 214,190
Dry edible beans .......................: 2.32 1,084,540
Dry edible peas ........................: 2.15 820,370
Lentils ................................: 1.23 260,450
:
Potatoes and miscellaneous :
Hops ...................................: 2.15 47,190
Maple syrup ............................: (NA) 20,900
Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) 302,390
Peppermint oil .........................: 0.10 1,280
Potatoes ...............................: 51.45 19,992,090
Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.14 700
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NA) Not available.
(X) Not applicable.
1/ Area planted for all purposes.
2/ Total may not add due to rounding.
Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2023 and 2024
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year,
except citrus which is for the 2023-2024 season. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Production
Crop :-----------------------------------
: 2023 : 2024
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Citrus 1/ :
Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons: 327 348
Lemons ..........................1,000 tons: 1,116 836
Oranges .........................1,000 tons: 2,487 2,764
Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons: 971 906
:
Noncitrus :
Apples, commercial ..........million pounds: 9,910.0
Apricots ..............................tons: 32,400
Avocados ..............................tons:
Blueberries, Cultivated .......1,000 pounds:
Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .....1,000 pounds:
Cherries, Sweet .......................tons: 371,000
Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds: 203.0
Coffee (Hawaii) ...............1,000 pounds:
Cranberries .........................barrel: 7,620,000
:
Dates .................................tons:
Grapes ................................tons: 6,285,000
Kiwifruit (California) ................tons:
Nectarines (California) ...............tons:
Olives (California) ...................tons:
Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds:
Peaches ...............................tons: 543,000
Pears .................................tons: 645,000
Plums (California) ....................tons:
Prunes (California) ...................tons:
Raspberries, all .............1,000 pounds:
Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt:
:
Nuts and miscellaneous :
Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds: 2,600,000
Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons:
Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds:
Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds: 271,450
Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds:
Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 760,000
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Production years are 2022-2023 and 2023-2024.
Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2023 and 2024
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year,
except citrus which is for the 2023-2024 season. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Production
Crop :-----------------------------------
: 2023 : 2024
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: metric tons
:
Citrus 1/ :
Grapefruit ................................: 296,650 315,700
Lemons ....................................: 1,012,420 758,410
Oranges ...................................: 2,256,170 2,507,460
Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 880,880 821,910
:
Noncitrus :
Apples, commercial ........................: 4,495,100
Apricots ..................................: 29,390
Avocados ..................................:
Blueberries, Cultivated ...................:
Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .................:
Cherries, Sweet ...........................: 336,570
Cherries, Tart ............................: 92,080
Coffee (Hawaii) ...........................:
Cranberries ...............................: 345,640
:
Dates .....................................:
Grapes ....................................: 5,701,660
Kiwifruit (California) ....................:
Nectarines (California) ...................:
Olives (California) .......................:
Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................:
Peaches ...................................: 492,600
Pears .....................................: 585,130
Plums (California) ........................:
Prunes (California) .......................:
Raspberries, all ..........................:
Strawberries ..............................:
:
Nuts and miscellaneous :
Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 1,179,340
Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............:
Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................:
Pecans, in-shell ..........................: 123,130
Pistachios (California) ...................:
Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 689,460
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Production years are 2022-2023 and 2023-2024.
January Weather Summary
Following the Nation's warmest December on record, January began with a
continuation of mild weather. However, for approximately 10 days, peaking
around mid-January, frigid, windy, and occasionally snowy weather caused
widespread travel disruptions and significantly increased livestock stress,
just as lambing and calving were getting underway. Some of the greatest
impacts stretched from the central Plains into the Midwest, where
back-to-back winter storms resulted in blizzard conditions. Ironically, the
snow was highly beneficial for winter wheat, especially in drought-affected
areas of the central Plains. Between November 26 and January 28, winter wheat
in Kansas rated in good to excellent condition surged from 32 to 54 percent,
while wheat rated very poor to poor had a corresponding drop from 32 to
15 percent. During the same 2-month period, similar jumps in
good-to-excellent ratings were noted in Nebraska (from 49 to 69 percent) and
Oklahoma (from 53 to 63 percent), due to snow, improved soil moisture, or a
combination of both.
In fact, there were marked improvements in topsoil moisture during January
across the Plains, South, and lower Midwest. Between December 31, 2023, and
late January, states reporting 20- to 50-point decreases in topsoil moisture
rated very short to short included Louisiana (from 64 to 15 percent),
Mississippi (from 52 to 8 percent), Tennessee (from 44 to 2 percent), Indiana
(from 40 to 8 percent), Kansas (from 47 to 20 percent), Nebraska (from 52 to
26 percent), Illinois (from 28 to 4 percent), and Colorado (from 45 to
23 percent). Despite lingering, long-term drought in parts of the South and
Midwest, surplus topsoil moisture developed in some areas, due to rain and
melting snow. By late January, topsoil moisture was rated one-third to
two-thirds surplus in a few states, including Ohio (62 percent), Tennessee
(60 percent), North Carolina (43 percent), Illinois (39 percent), Louisiana
(39 percent), and Mississippi (34 percent).
Despite wetter conditions in many areas, some drought concerns persisted.
According to the Drought Monitor, drought covered 23.52 percent of the Lower
48 States on January 30, down from 32.98 percent just 4 weeks earlier. The
most substantial improvement occurred from the central and southern Plains
into the East, with January precipitation also reducing drought coverage and
intensity in parts of the Southwest and Pacific Northwest. Conversely,
worsening drought was noted during January across northern sections of the
Rockies and High Plains. Among states reporting winter statistics, New Mexico
led in late January with topsoil moisture rated 80 percent very short to
short, followed by Montana at 68 percent. Drought-affected rangeland and
pastures, some of which may not recover until warmer weather arrives in the
spring, were still rated more than one-half very poor to poor near the end of
January in New Mexico (64 percent), Texas (58 percent), and Montana
(54 percent).
There was some January improvement in the Western snowpack situation,
although there were still large gaps in adequate coverage. Notably, the
average water equivalency of the Sierra Nevada snowpack increased about
6 inches during January, according to the California Department of Water
Resources. However, that left the Sierra Nevada with an average water
equivalency of just 8.5 inches by month's end, approximately one-half of the
end-of-January average. Another notable area with sub-par snowpack at the end
of January stretched from the northern Cascades to the northern Rockies.
The mid-month Arctic blast produced sub-zero temperatures as far south as
Texas' northern panhandle and the Tennessee Valley and resulted in readings
below -30�F on the northern High Plains. The greatest concern for winter
wheat health was focused across Montana, where only a patchy or shallow snow
cover existed when the coldest air arrived on January 13-14. Farther south,
freezes struck Deep South Texas on January 16-17, with some potential impacts
on citrus and other temperature-sensitive crops. Southern Louisiana
experienced hard freezes (28�F or below) from January 15-17, although impacts
were limited by the fact that the sugarcane harvest was complete. Meanwhile,
Florida's key winter agricultural areas escaped the cold wave. On the
strength of the mid-January cold snap, monthly temperatures averaged at least
2 to 6�F below normal across the Nation's mid-section, including much of the
Plains, mid-South, and western and central Gulf Coast States, as well as the
northern tier of the western United States. In contrast, readings averaged
2 to 6�F above normal from the Great Lakes region into the Northeast.
January Agricultural Summary
January was warmer than normal for most of the southern Atlantic Coast,
Mid-Atlantic, Upper Midwest, and Northeast, as well as large parts of the
West. Locations in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Utah, and Vermont recorded
temperatures 8�F or more above normal. In contrast, most of the Great Plains
and Mississippi Valley, as well as large parts of the Pacific Northwest,
Northern Rockies, and Southwest, recorded cooler than normal temperatures.
Parts of Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, and Wyoming recorded temperatures 8�F or
more below normal for January. Much of the Nation recorded higher than
average amounts of precipitation in January. Parts of the Mid-Atlantic,
Midwest, Northeast, Central and Southern Plains, South, and West recorded at
least twice the normal amount of precipitation. Parts of the
Pacific Northwest and South received at least 12 inches of precipitation
during the month. In contrast, much of the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains,
as well as parts of the Rockies and Southwest, remained drier than normal for
the month.
Crop Comments
Grapefruit: The United States 2023-2024 grapefruit crop is forecast at
348,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but up 6 percent from last
season's final utilization. The Florida forecast, at 2.40 million boxes
(102,000 tons), is unchanged from previous forecast but up 33 percent from
the last season. California and Texas grapefruit production forecasts were
carried forward from the previous forecast.
Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is
forecast at 906,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but
down 7 percent from the last season's final utilization. The Florida
tangerine and mandarin forecast, at 550,00 boxes (26,000 tons), is unchanged
from the last forecast but is up 15 percent from last year. The California
tangerine and mandarin forecast was carried forward from the previous
forecast.
Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is forecast at
33.3 million tons, up 1 percent from the previous forecast but down 4 percent
from last season. Producers intend to harvest 935,000 acres for sugar and
seed during the 2023 crop year, up slightly from last month and up 1 percent
from 2022. Yields for sugar and seed are expected to average
35.6 tons per acre, up 0.2 ton from last month but down 1.7 tons from last
season.
Statistical Methodology
Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the February 1
forecast was conducted in Florida. In August and September last year, the
number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree was determined. In
August and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage
surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous components are used
to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct
grower survey on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July.
California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for Navel
oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.
Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida
oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with
historical estimates. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also
used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the
current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses
the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published February 1
forecast.
Revision policy: The February 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A
new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-
season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in
August. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end
of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders,
shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local
utilization and home use.
Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1
production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure
based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1
production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of
the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the
latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes
statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be
made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the
final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's
forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. For example,
the "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 orange production forecast is
6.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange
production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more
than 6.0 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that
the difference will not exceed 10.4 percent.
Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for selected crops of
the differences between the February 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using
oranges again as an example, changes between the February 1 forecast and the
final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 306,000 tons, ranging
from 43,000 tons to 843,000 tons. The February 1 forecast for oranges has
been below the final estimate 6 times and above 14 times. This does not imply
that the February 1 orange forecast this year is likely to understate or
overstate final production.
Reliability of February 1 Crop Production Forecasts
[Based on data for the past twenty years]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: : : Difference between forecast
: : : and final estimate
: : :----------------------------------------
: :90 percent : Production : Years
Crop : Root mean :confidence :----------------------------------------
:square error: interval : : : : Below : Above
: : :Average:Smallest:Largest: final : final
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: ---- percent --- ----- millions ----- number
:
Oranges 1/ ...............tons: 6.0 10.4 306 43 843 6 14
Sugarcane ...............tons: 3.0 5.1 1 (Z) 3 4 16
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Z) Less than half of the unit shown.
1/ Quantity is in thousands of units.
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to
contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov
Chris Hawthorn, Acting Chief, Crops Branch............................................................. (202) 720-2127
Travis Thorson, Acting Head, Field Crops Section (202) 720-2127
Irwin Anolik - Crop Progress and Condition (202) 720-7621
Joshua Bates - Hemp, Oats, Soybeans (202) 690-3234
Natasha Bruton - Barley, Cotton System Consumption and Stocks, Grain Crushings (202) 690-1042
David Colwell - Fats and Oils, Flour Milling Products (202) 720-8800
Michelle Harder - County Estimates, Hay (202) 690-8533
James Johanson - Rye, Wheat (202) 720-8068
Greg Lemmons - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526
Becky Sommer - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum (202) 720-5944
Travis Thorson - Sunflower, Other Oilseeds........................................................ (202) 720-7369
Travis Thorson - Peanuts, Rice.................................................................... (202) 720-2127
Fleming Gibson, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section..................................... (202) 720-2127
Deonne Holiday - Almonds, Carrots, Coffee, Cranberries, Garlic, Onions,
Plums, Prunes, Tobacco................................................................................. (202) 720-4288
Bret Holliman - Apricots, Chickpeas, Nectarines, Peaches, Snap Beans,
Sweet Corn, Tomatoes................................................................................... (202) 720-7235
Robert Little - Blueberries, Cabbage, Dry Beans, Lettuce, Macadamia,
Maple Syrup, Pears, Raspberries, Spinach............................................................... (202) 720-3250
Krishna Rizal - Artichokes, Asparagus, Celery, Grapefruit, Kiwifruit, Lemons,
Mandarins and tangerines, Mint, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges, Pistachios................................. (202) 720-5412
Chris Singh - Apples, Cucumbers, Hazelnuts, Potatoes, Pumpkins,
Squash, Strawberries, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes............................................ (202) 720-4285
Antonio Torres - Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Grapes, Green Peas,
Honeydews, Lentils, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Walnuts, Watermelons................................ (202) 720-2157
Chris Wallace - Avocados, Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cauliflower,
Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Hops, Papayas, Pecans.............................................. (202) 720-4215
Access to NASS Reports
For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following
ways:
All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web
site: www.nass.usda.gov.
Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e-
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nass@usda.gov.
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