Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released February 8, 2024, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Orange Production Down 1 Percent from January Forecast The United States all orange forecast for the 2023-2024 season is 2.76 million tons, down 1 percent from the previous forecast but up 11 percent from the 2022-2023 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 19.8 million boxes (891,000 tons), is down 3 percent from the previous forecast but up 25 percent from last season's final utilization. In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 6.80 million boxes (306,000 tons), down 9 percent from the previous forecast but up 11 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 13.0 million boxes (585,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but up 35 percent from last season's final utilization. This report was approved on February 8, 2024. Secretary of Agriculture Designate Alexis M. Taylor Agricultural Statistics Board Acting Chairperson Lance Honig Contents Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2022-2023 and Forecasted February 1, 2024......................................................................................... 4 Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use - States and United States: 2022 and 2023......... 5 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2023 and 2024.. 6 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2023 and 2024.... 8 Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2023 and 2024.............................. 10 Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2023 and 2024................................ 11 January Percent of Normal Precipitation Map.............................................................. 12 January Departure from Normal Temperature Map............................................................ 12 January Weather Summary.................................................................................. 13 January Agricultural Summary............................................................................. 13 Crop Comments............................................................................................ 14 Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 15 Reliability of February 1 Crop Production Forecasts...................................................... 15 Information Contacts..................................................................................... 16 Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2022-2023 and Forecasted February 1, 2024 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized production boxes 1/ :Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2022-2023 : 2023-2024 : 2022-2023 : 2023-2024 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 boxes ----- ------ 1,000 tons ----- Oranges : California, all 2/ .........: 43,200 45,800 1,728 1,832 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 36,500 38,000 1,460 1,520 Valencia ..................: 6,700 7,800 268 312 : Florida, all ...............: 15,800 19,800 711 891 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 6,150 6,800 277 306 Valencia ..................: 9,650 13,000 434 585 : Texas, all 2/ ..............: 1,130 950 48 41 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 570 600 24 26 Valencia ..................: 560 350 24 15 : United States, all .........: 60,130 66,550 2,487 2,764 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 43,220 45,400 1,761 1,852 Valencia ..................: 16,910 21,150 726 912 : Grapefruit : California 2/ ..............: 4,000 3,800 160 152 Florida, all ...............: 1,810 2,400 77 102 Texas 2/ ...................: 2,250 2,350 90 94 : United States ..............: 8,060 8,550 327 348 : Tangerines and mandarins 4/ : California 2/ ..............: 23,700 22,000 948 880 Florida ....................: 480 550 23 26 : United States ..............: 24,180 22,550 971 906 : Lemons 2/ : Arizona ....................: 1,400 900 56 36 California .................: 26,500 20,000 1,060 800 : United States ..............: 27,900 20,900 1,116 836 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80. 2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. 4/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use - States and United States: 2022 and 2023 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Use and State : Area harvested : Yield per acre 1/ : Production 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2022 : 2023 : 2022 : 2023 : 2022 : 2023 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 acres ----- tons ----- --- 1,000 tons -- : For sugar : Florida ......................: 386.0 391.0 44.5 44.5 17,177 17,400 Louisiana 2/ .................: 474.0 484.0 32.1 28.5 15,215 13,794 Texas 2/ .....................: 30.9 16.2 22.6 22.7 698 368 : United States ................: 890.9 891.2 37.1 35.4 33,090 31,562 : For seed : Florida ......................: 15.9 16.6 47.4 49.8 754 827 Louisiana 2/ .................: 23.1 24.6 35.5 32.4 820 797 Texas 2/ .....................: 0.3 2.6 24.6 24.7 7 64 : United States ................: 39.3 43.8 40.2 38.5 1,581 1,688 : For sugar and seed : Florida ......................: 401.9 407.6 44.6 44.7 17,931 18,227 Louisiana 2/ .................: 497.1 508.6 32.3 28.7 16,035 14,591 Texas 2/ .....................: 31.2 18.8 22.6 23.0 705 432 : United States ................: 930.2 935.0 37.3 35.6 34,671 33,250 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. 2/ Estimates are carried forward from an earlier estimate. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2023 and 2024 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2024 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 3,101 2,555 Corn for grain 1/ ......................: 94,641 86,513 Corn for silage ........................: (NA) 6,471 Hay, all ...............................: (NA) 52,821 Alfalfa ..............................: (NA) 15,634 All other ............................: (NA) 37,187 Oats ...................................: 2,555 831 Proso millet ...........................: 619 572 Rice ...................................: 2,894 2,854 Rye ....................................: 2,293 322 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................: 7,195 6,115 Sorghum for silage .....................: (NA) 384 Wheat, all .............................: 49,575 37,272 Winter ...............................: 36,699 34,425 24,683 Durum ................................: 1,676 1,604 Other spring .........................: 11,200 10,985 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2,344.5 2,319.2 Cottonseed .............................: (X) (X) Flaxseed ...............................: 178 160 Mustard seed ...........................: 245.0 238.1 Peanuts ................................: 1,645.0 1,574.0 Rapeseed ...............................: 13.2 10.1 Safflower ..............................: 129.5 126.0 Soybeans for beans .....................: 83,600 82,356 Sunflower ..............................: 1,315.0 1,267.5 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all ............................: 10,230.0 7,064.6 Upland ...............................: 10,083.0 6,924.8 American Pima ........................: 147.0 139.8 Sugarbeets .............................: 1,137.4 1,127.3 Sugarcane ..............................: (NA) 935.0 Tobacco ................................: (NA) 187.6 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 372.4 359.2 Dry edible beans .......................: 1,180.0 1,156.9 Dry edible peas ........................: 966.0 941.0 Lentils ................................: 546.0 523.0 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: (NA) 54.3 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .........................: (NA) 31.3 Potatoes ...............................: 965.0 960.2 Spearmint oil ..........................: (NA) 12.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2023 and 2024 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2024 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per acre : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ------ 1,000 ------ : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 72.4 185,036 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 177.3 15,341,595 Corn for silage ....................tons: 20.1 129,994 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.25 118,769 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.19 49,916 All other ........................tons: 1.85 68,853 Oats ............................bushels: 68.6 57,045 Proso millet ....................bushels: 34.2 19,572 Rice 2/ .............................cwt: 7,649 218,291 Rye .............................bushels: 32.2 10,375 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 52.0 317,745 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 13.0 4,981 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 48.6 1,811,977 Winter ........................bushels: 50.6 1,247,748 Durum .........................bushels: 37.0 59,329 Other spring ..................bushels: 46.0 504,900 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 1,793 4,157,420 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 3,788.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 18.5 2,961 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 627 149,305 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 3,742 5,890,020 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 2,003 20,230 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,036 130,570 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 50.6 4,164,677 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,786 2,263,520 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales: 845 12,434.0 Upland 2/ .......................bales: 841 12,127.0 American Pima 2/ ................bales: 1,054 307.0 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 31.2 35,226 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 35.6 33,250 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 2,305 432,452 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas 2/ ........................cwt: 1,315 4,722 Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt: 2,067 23,910 Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt: 1,922 18,086 Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt: 1,098 5,742 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops .............................pounds: 1,915 104,042.5 Maple syrup .....................gallons: (NA) 4,179 Mushrooms ........................pounds: (NA) 666,647 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 90 2,811 Potatoes ............................cwt: 459 440,750 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 126 1,541 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2023 and 2024 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2024 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 1,254,940 1,033,980 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 38,300,270 35,010,950 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,618,750 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) 21,376,130 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 6,326,920 All other ....................: (NA) 15,049,210 Oats ...........................: 1,033,980 336,300 Proso millet ...................: 250,500 231,480 Rice ...........................: 1,171,170 1,154,990 Rye ............................: 927,950 130,310 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,911,740 2,474,680 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 155,400 Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 20,062,510 15,083,610 Winter .......................: 14,851,720 13,931,450 9,988,960 Durum ........................: 678,260 649,120 Other spring .................: 4,532,530 4,445,520 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 948,800 938,560 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 72,030 64,750 Mustard seed ...................: 99,150 96,360 Peanuts ........................: 665,720 636,980 Rapeseed .......................: 5,340 4,090 Safflower ......................: 52,410 50,990 Soybeans for beans .............: 33,832,080 33,328,650 Sunflower ......................: 532,170 512,940 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 4,139,980 2,858,970 Upland .......................: 4,080,490 2,802,400 American Pima ................: 59,490 56,580 Sugarbeets .....................: 460,290 456,210 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 378,390 Tobacco ........................: (NA) 75,930 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ......................: 150,710 145,360 Dry edible beans ...............: 477,530 468,190 Dry edible peas ................: 390,930 380,810 Lentils ........................: 220,960 211,650 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...........................: (NA) 21,980 Maple syrup ....................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ......................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 12,670 Potatoes .......................: 390,530 388,580 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 4,940 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2023 and 2024 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2024 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 3.90 4,028,680 Corn for grain .........................: 11.13 389,694,460 Corn for silage ........................: 45.03 117,928,570 Hay, all 2/ ............................: 5.04 107,745,420 Alfalfa ..............................: 7.16 45,283,030 All other ............................: 4.15 62,462,390 Oats ...................................: 2.46 828,010 Proso millet ...........................: 1.92 443,890 Rice ...................................: 8.57 9,901,510 Rye ....................................: 2.02 263,540 Sorghum for grain ......................: 3.26 8,071,090 Sorghum for silage .....................: 29.08 4,518,690 Wheat, all 2/ ..........................: 3.27 49,313,930 Winter ...............................: 3.40 33,958,140 Durum ................................: 2.49 1,614,670 Other spring .........................: 3.09 13,741,130 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2.01 1,885,770 Cottonseed .............................: (X) 3,436,420 Flaxseed ...............................: 1.16 75,210 Mustard seed ...........................: 0.70 67,720 Peanuts ................................: 4.19 2,671,670 Rapeseed ...............................: 2.25 9,180 Safflower ..............................: 1.16 59,230 Soybeans for beans .....................: 3.40 113,343,930 Sunflower ..............................: 2.00 1,026,720 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ .........................: 0.95 2,707,180 Upland ...............................: 0.94 2,640,340 American Pima ........................: 1.18 66,840 Sugarbeets .............................: 70.05 31,956,490 Sugarcane ..............................: 79.72 30,163,890 Tobacco ................................: 2.58 196,160 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 1.47 214,190 Dry edible beans .......................: 2.32 1,084,540 Dry edible peas ........................: 2.15 820,370 Lentils ................................: 1.23 260,450 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: 2.15 47,190 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) 20,900 Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) 302,390 Peppermint oil .........................: 0.10 1,280 Potatoes ...............................: 51.45 19,992,090 Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.14 700 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2023 and 2024 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2023-2024 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2023 : 2024 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons: 327 348 Lemons ..........................1,000 tons: 1,116 836 Oranges .........................1,000 tons: 2,487 2,764 Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons: 971 906 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ..........million pounds: 9,910.0 Apricots ..............................tons: 32,400 Avocados ..............................tons: Blueberries, Cultivated .......1,000 pounds: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .....1,000 pounds: Cherries, Sweet .......................tons: 371,000 Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds: 203.0 Coffee (Hawaii) ...............1,000 pounds: Cranberries .........................barrel: 7,620,000 : Dates .................................tons: Grapes ................................tons: 6,285,000 Kiwifruit (California) ................tons: Nectarines (California) ...............tons: Olives (California) ...................tons: Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds: Peaches ...............................tons: 543,000 Pears .................................tons: 645,000 Plums (California) ....................tons: Prunes (California) ...................tons: Raspberries, all .............1,000 pounds: Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds: 2,600,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons: Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds: Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds: 271,450 Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 760,000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2022-2023 and 2023-2024. Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2023 and 2024 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2023-2024 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2023 : 2024 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ................................: 296,650 315,700 Lemons ....................................: 1,012,420 758,410 Oranges ...................................: 2,256,170 2,507,460 Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 880,880 821,910 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ........................: 4,495,100 Apricots ..................................: 29,390 Avocados ..................................: Blueberries, Cultivated ...................: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .................: Cherries, Sweet ...........................: 336,570 Cherries, Tart ............................: 92,080 Coffee (Hawaii) ...........................: Cranberries ...............................: 345,640 : Dates .....................................: Grapes ....................................: 5,701,660 Kiwifruit (California) ....................: Nectarines (California) ...................: Olives (California) .......................: Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................: Peaches ...................................: 492,600 Pears .....................................: 585,130 Plums (California) ........................: Prunes (California) .......................: Raspberries, all ..........................: Strawberries ..............................: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 1,179,340 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............: Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................: Pecans, in-shell ..........................: 123,130 Pistachios (California) ...................: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 689,460 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2022-2023 and 2023-2024. January Weather Summary Following the Nation's warmest December on record, January began with a continuation of mild weather. However, for approximately 10 days, peaking around mid-January, frigid, windy, and occasionally snowy weather caused widespread travel disruptions and significantly increased livestock stress, just as lambing and calving were getting underway. Some of the greatest impacts stretched from the central Plains into the Midwest, where back-to-back winter storms resulted in blizzard conditions. Ironically, the snow was highly beneficial for winter wheat, especially in drought-affected areas of the central Plains. Between November 26 and January 28, winter wheat in Kansas rated in good to excellent condition surged from 32 to 54 percent, while wheat rated very poor to poor had a corresponding drop from 32 to 15 percent. During the same 2-month period, similar jumps in good-to-excellent ratings were noted in Nebraska (from 49 to 69 percent) and Oklahoma (from 53 to 63 percent), due to snow, improved soil moisture, or a combination of both. In fact, there were marked improvements in topsoil moisture during January across the Plains, South, and lower Midwest. Between December 31, 2023, and late January, states reporting 20- to 50-point decreases in topsoil moisture rated very short to short included Louisiana (from 64 to 15 percent), Mississippi (from 52 to 8 percent), Tennessee (from 44 to 2 percent), Indiana (from 40 to 8 percent), Kansas (from 47 to 20 percent), Nebraska (from 52 to 26 percent), Illinois (from 28 to 4 percent), and Colorado (from 45 to 23 percent). Despite lingering, long-term drought in parts of the South and Midwest, surplus topsoil moisture developed in some areas, due to rain and melting snow. By late January, topsoil moisture was rated one-third to two-thirds surplus in a few states, including Ohio (62 percent), Tennessee (60 percent), North Carolina (43 percent), Illinois (39 percent), Louisiana (39 percent), and Mississippi (34 percent). Despite wetter conditions in many areas, some drought concerns persisted. According to the Drought Monitor, drought covered 23.52 percent of the Lower 48 States on January 30, down from 32.98 percent just 4 weeks earlier. The most substantial improvement occurred from the central and southern Plains into the East, with January precipitation also reducing drought coverage and intensity in parts of the Southwest and Pacific Northwest. Conversely, worsening drought was noted during January across northern sections of the Rockies and High Plains. Among states reporting winter statistics, New Mexico led in late January with topsoil moisture rated 80 percent very short to short, followed by Montana at 68 percent. Drought-affected rangeland and pastures, some of which may not recover until warmer weather arrives in the spring, were still rated more than one-half very poor to poor near the end of January in New Mexico (64 percent), Texas (58 percent), and Montana (54 percent). There was some January improvement in the Western snowpack situation, although there were still large gaps in adequate coverage. Notably, the average water equivalency of the Sierra Nevada snowpack increased about 6 inches during January, according to the California Department of Water Resources. However, that left the Sierra Nevada with an average water equivalency of just 8.5 inches by month's end, approximately one-half of the end-of-January average. Another notable area with sub-par snowpack at the end of January stretched from the northern Cascades to the northern Rockies. The mid-month Arctic blast produced sub-zero temperatures as far south as Texas' northern panhandle and the Tennessee Valley and resulted in readings below -30�F on the northern High Plains. The greatest concern for winter wheat health was focused across Montana, where only a patchy or shallow snow cover existed when the coldest air arrived on January 13-14. Farther south, freezes struck Deep South Texas on January 16-17, with some potential impacts on citrus and other temperature-sensitive crops. Southern Louisiana experienced hard freezes (28�F or below) from January 15-17, although impacts were limited by the fact that the sugarcane harvest was complete. Meanwhile, Florida's key winter agricultural areas escaped the cold wave. On the strength of the mid-January cold snap, monthly temperatures averaged at least 2 to 6�F below normal across the Nation's mid-section, including much of the Plains, mid-South, and western and central Gulf Coast States, as well as the northern tier of the western United States. In contrast, readings averaged 2 to 6�F above normal from the Great Lakes region into the Northeast. January Agricultural Summary January was warmer than normal for most of the southern Atlantic Coast, Mid-Atlantic, Upper Midwest, and Northeast, as well as large parts of the West. Locations in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Utah, and Vermont recorded temperatures 8�F or more above normal. In contrast, most of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, as well as large parts of the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and Southwest, recorded cooler than normal temperatures. Parts of Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, and Wyoming recorded temperatures 8�F or more below normal for January. Much of the Nation recorded higher than average amounts of precipitation in January. Parts of the Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, Northeast, Central and Southern Plains, South, and West recorded at least twice the normal amount of precipitation. Parts of the Pacific Northwest and South received at least 12 inches of precipitation during the month. In contrast, much of the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains, as well as parts of the Rockies and Southwest, remained drier than normal for the month. Crop Comments Grapefruit: The United States 2023-2024 grapefruit crop is forecast at 348,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but up 6 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida forecast, at 2.40 million boxes (102,000 tons), is unchanged from previous forecast but up 33 percent from the last season. California and Texas grapefruit production forecasts were carried forward from the previous forecast. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 906,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 7 percent from the last season's final utilization. The Florida tangerine and mandarin forecast, at 550,00 boxes (26,000 tons), is unchanged from the last forecast but is up 15 percent from last year. The California tangerine and mandarin forecast was carried forward from the previous forecast. Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is forecast at 33.3 million tons, up 1 percent from the previous forecast but down 4 percent from last season. Producers intend to harvest 935,000 acres for sugar and seed during the 2023 crop year, up slightly from last month and up 1 percent from 2022. Yields for sugar and seed are expected to average 35.6 tons per acre, up 0.2 ton from last month but down 1.7 tons from last season. Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the February 1 forecast was conducted in Florida. In August and September last year, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree was determined. In August and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous components are used to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower survey on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published February 1 forecast. Revision policy: The February 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of- season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in August. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 orange production forecast is 6.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 6.0 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 10.4 percent. Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the differences between the February 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using oranges again as an example, changes between the February 1 forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 306,000 tons, ranging from 43,000 tons to 843,000 tons. The February 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 6 times and above 14 times. This does not imply that the February 1 orange forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Reliability of February 1 Crop Production Forecasts [Based on data for the past twenty years] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : : : Difference between forecast : : : and final estimate : : :---------------------------------------- : :90 percent : Production : Years Crop : Root mean :confidence :---------------------------------------- :square error: interval : : : : Below : Above : : :Average:Smallest:Largest: final : final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ---- percent --- ----- millions ----- number : Oranges 1/ ...............tons: 6.0 10.4 306 43 843 6 14 Sugarcane ...............tons: 3.0 5.1 1 (Z) 3 4 16 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (Z) Less than half of the unit shown. 1/ Quantity is in thousands of units. USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov Chris Hawthorn, Acting Chief, Crops Branch............................................................. (202) 720-2127 Travis Thorson, Acting Head, Field Crops Section (202) 720-2127 Irwin Anolik - Crop Progress and Condition (202) 720-7621 Joshua Bates - Hemp, Oats, Soybeans (202) 690-3234 Natasha Bruton - Barley, Cotton System Consumption and Stocks, Grain Crushings (202) 690-1042 David Colwell - Fats and Oils, Flour Milling Products (202) 720-8800 Michelle Harder - County Estimates, Hay (202) 690-8533 James Johanson - Rye, Wheat (202) 720-8068 Greg Lemmons - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526 Becky Sommer - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum (202) 720-5944 Travis Thorson - Sunflower, Other Oilseeds........................................................ (202) 720-7369 Travis Thorson - Peanuts, Rice.................................................................... (202) 720-2127 Fleming Gibson, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section..................................... (202) 720-2127 Deonne Holiday - Almonds, Carrots, Coffee, Cranberries, Garlic, Onions, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco................................................................................. (202) 720-4288 Bret Holliman - Apricots, Chickpeas, Nectarines, Peaches, Snap Beans, Sweet Corn, Tomatoes................................................................................... (202) 720-7235 Robert Little - Blueberries, Cabbage, Dry Beans, Lettuce, Macadamia, Maple Syrup, Pears, Raspberries, Spinach............................................................... (202) 720-3250 Krishna Rizal - Artichokes, Asparagus, Celery, Grapefruit, Kiwifruit, Lemons, Mandarins and tangerines, Mint, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges, Pistachios................................. (202) 720-5412 Chris Singh - Apples, Cucumbers, Hazelnuts, Potatoes, Pumpkins, Squash, Strawberries, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes............................................ (202) 720-4285 Antonio Torres - Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Grapes, Green Peas, Honeydews, Lentils, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Walnuts, Watermelons................................ (202) 720-2157 Chris Wallace - Avocados, Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cauliflower, Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Hops, Papayas, Pecans.............................................. (202) 720-4215 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov. Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit www.nass.usda.gov and click on "National" or "State" in upper right corner above "search" box to create an account and select the reports you would like to receive. Cornell's Mann Library has launched a new website housing NASS's and other agency's archived reports. The new website, https://usda.library.cornell.edu. All email subscriptions containing reports will be sent from the new website, https://usda.library.cornell.edu. To continue receiving the reports via e-mail, you will have to go to the new website, create a new account and re-subscribe to the reports. If you need instructions to set up an account or subscribe, they are located at: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/help. You should whitelist notifications@usda-esmis.library.cornell.edu in your email client to avoid the emails going into spam/junk folders. For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@usda.gov. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination against its customers, employees, and applicants for employment on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, sex, gender identity, religion, reprisal, and where applicable, political beliefs, marital status, familial or parental status, sexual orientation, or all or part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance program, or protected genetic information in employment or in any program or activity conducted or funded by the Department. (Not all prohibited bases will apply to all programs and/or employment activities.) If you wish to file a Civil Rights program complaint of discrimination, complete the USDA Program Discrimination Complaint Form (PDF), found online at www.ascr.usda.gov/filing-program-discrimination-complaint-usda-customer, or at any USDA office, or call (866) 632-9992 to request the form. You may also write a letter containing all of the information requested in the form. Send your completed complaint form or letter to us by mail at U.S. Department of Agriculture, Director, Office of Adjudication, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410, by fax (202) 690-7442 or email at program.intake@usda.gov.