Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released March 8, 2024, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Orange Production Up Less Than 1 Percent from February Forecast The United States all orange forecast for the 2023-2024 season is 2.77 million tons, up less than 1 percent from the previous forecast and up 11 percent from the 2022-2023 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 19.8 million boxes (891,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but up 25 percent from last season's final utilization. In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 6.80 million boxes (306,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but up 11 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 13.0 million boxes (585,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but up 35 percent from last season's final utilization. The California Valencia orange forecast is 8.00 million boxes (320,000 tons), up 3 percent from previous forecast and up 19 percent from the previous season. This results in a California all orange forecast of 46.0 million boxes (1.84 million tons), up less than 1 percent from the previous forecast and up 6 percent from last season's final utilization. The forecast for Texas is carried forward from the previous forecast. This report was approved on March 8, 2024. Secretary of Agriculture Designate Seth Meyer Agricultural Statistics Board Acting Chairperson Lance Honig Contents Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2022 and 2023................ 4 Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2022-2023 and Forecasted March 1, 2024............................................................................................ 5 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2023 and 2024.. 6 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2023 and 2024.... 8 Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2023 and 2024.............................. 10 Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2023 and 2024................................ 11 Percent of Normal Precipitation Map...................................................................... 12 Departure from Normal Temperature Map.................................................................... 12 February Weather Summary................................................................................. 13 February Agricultural Summary............................................................................ 13 Crop Comments............................................................................................ 14 Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 15 Reliability of March 1 Crop Production Forecasts......................................................... 15 Information Contacts..................................................................................... 16 Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2022 and 2023 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area harvested : Yield per acre 1/ : Production 1/ State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2022 : 2023 : 2022 : 2023 : 2022 : 2023 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 acres -- ----- tons ----- --- 1,000 tons --- : For sugar : Florida ............: 386.0 391.0 44.5 44.4 17,177 17,360 Louisiana ..........: 474.0 481.0 32.1 29.9 15,215 14,382 Texas ..............: 30.9 16.5 22.6 22.5 698 371 : United States ......: 890.9 888.5 37.1 36.1 33,090 32,113 : For seed : Florida ............: 15.9 16.6 47.4 49.8 754 827 Louisiana ..........: 23.1 24.5 35.5 33.7 820 826 Texas ..............: 0.3 - 24.6 (X) 7 - : United States ......: 39.3 41.1 40.2 40.2 1,581 1,653 : For sugar and seed : Florida ............: 401.9 407.6 44.6 44.6 17,931 18,187 Louisiana ..........: 497.1 505.5 32.3 30.1 16,035 15,208 Texas ..............: 31.2 16.5 22.6 22.5 705 371 : United States ......: 930.2 929.6 37.3 36.3 34,671 33,766 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Net tons. Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2022-2023 and Forecasted March 1, 2024 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Utilized production boxes 1/ :Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2022-2023 : 2023-2024 : 2022-2023 : 2023-2024 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ------ 1,000 boxes ----- ------ 1,000 tons ----- Oranges : California, all ..............: 43,200 46,000 1,728 1,840 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ 3/ .: 36,500 38,000 1,460 1,520 Valencia ....................: 6,700 8,000 268 320 : Florida, all .................: 15,800 19,800 711 891 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ....: 6,150 6,800 277 306 Valencia ....................: 9,650 13,000 434 585 : Texas, all 2/ ................: 1,130 950 48 41 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ....: 570 600 24 26 Valencia ....................: 560 350 24 15 : United States, all ...........: 60,130 66,750 2,487 2,772 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ....: 43,220 45,400 1,761 1,852 Valencia ....................: 16,910 21,350 726 920 : Grapefruit : California 2/ ................: 4,000 3,800 160 152 Florida ......................: 1,810 2,200 77 94 Texas 2/ .....................: 2,250 2,350 90 94 : United States ................: 8,060 8,350 327 340 : Tangerines and mandarins 4/ : California 2/ ................: 23,700 22,000 948 880 Florida ......................: 480 500 23 24 : United States ................: 24,180 22,500 971 904 : Lemons 2/ : Arizona ......................: 1,400 900 56 36 California ...................: 26,500 20,000 1,060 800 : United States ................: 27,900 20,900 1,116 836 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80. 2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and mid-season varieties in Florida and Texas. 4/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2023 and 2024 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2024 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 3,101 2,555 Corn for grain 1/ ......................: 94,641 86,513 Corn for silage ........................: (NA) 6,471 Hay, all ...............................: (NA) 52,821 Alfalfa ..............................: (NA) 15,634 All other ............................: (NA) 37,187 Oats ...................................: 2,555 831 Proso millet ...........................: 619 572 Rice ...................................: 2,894 2,854 Rye ....................................: 2,293 322 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................: 7,195 6,115 Sorghum for silage .....................: (NA) 384 Wheat, all .............................: 49,575 37,272 Winter ...............................: 36,699 34,425 24,683 Durum ................................: 1,676 1,604 Other spring .........................: 11,200 10,985 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2,344.5 2,319.2 Cottonseed .............................: (X) (X) Flaxseed ...............................: 178 160 Mustard seed ...........................: 245.0 238.1 Peanuts ................................: 1,645.0 1,574.0 Rapeseed ...............................: 13.2 10.1 Safflower ..............................: 129.5 126.0 Soybeans for beans .....................: 83,600 82,356 Sunflower ..............................: 1,315.0 1,267.5 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all ............................: 10,230.0 7,064.6 Upland ...............................: 10,083.0 6,924.8 American Pima ........................: 147.0 139.8 Sugarbeets .............................: 1,137.4 1,127.3 Sugarcane ..............................: (NA) 929.6 Tobacco ................................: (NA) 187.6 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 372.4 359.2 Dry edible beans .......................: 1,180.0 1,156.9 Dry edible peas ........................: 966.0 941.0 Lentils ................................: 546.0 523.0 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: (NA) 54.3 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .........................: (NA) 31.3 Potatoes ...............................: 965.0 960.2 Spearmint oil ..........................: (NA) 12.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2023 and 2024 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2024 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per acre : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ------ 1,000 ------ : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 72.4 185,036 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 177.3 15,341,595 Corn for silage ....................tons: 20.1 129,994 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.25 118,769 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.19 49,916 All other ........................tons: 1.85 68,853 Oats ............................bushels: 68.6 57,045 Proso millet ....................bushels: 34.2 19,572 Rice 2/ .............................cwt: 7,649 218,291 Rye .............................bushels: 32.2 10,375 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 52.0 317,745 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 13.0 4,981 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 48.6 1,811,977 Winter ........................bushels: 50.6 1,247,748 Durum .........................bushels: 37.0 59,329 Other spring ..................bushels: 46.0 504,900 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 1,793 4,157,420 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 3,788.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 18.5 2,961 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 627 149,305 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 3,742 5,890,020 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 2,003 20,230 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,036 130,570 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 50.6 4,164,677 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,786 2,263,520 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales: 845 12,434.0 Upland 2/ .......................bales: 841 12,127.0 American Pima 2/ ................bales: 1,054 307.0 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 31.2 35,226 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 36.3 33,766 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 2,305 432,452 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas 2/ ........................cwt: 1,315 4,722 Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt: 2,067 23,910 Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt: 1,922 18,086 Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt: 1,098 5,742 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops .............................pounds: 1,915 104,042.5 Maple syrup .....................gallons: (NA) 4,179 Mushrooms ........................pounds: (NA) 666,647 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 90 2,811 Potatoes ............................cwt: 459 440,750 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 126 1,541 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2023 and 2024 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2024 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 1,254,940 1,033,980 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 38,300,270 35,010,950 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,618,750 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) 21,376,130 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 6,326,920 All other ....................: (NA) 15,049,210 Oats ...........................: 1,033,980 336,300 Proso millet ...................: 250,500 231,480 Rice ...........................: 1,171,170 1,154,990 Rye ............................: 927,950 130,310 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,911,740 2,474,680 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 155,400 Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 20,062,510 15,083,610 Winter .......................: 14,851,720 13,931,450 9,988,960 Durum ........................: 678,260 649,120 Other spring .................: 4,532,530 4,445,520 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 948,800 938,560 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 72,030 64,750 Mustard seed ...................: 99,150 96,360 Peanuts ........................: 665,720 636,980 Rapeseed .......................: 5,340 4,090 Safflower ......................: 52,410 50,990 Soybeans for beans .............: 33,832,080 33,328,650 Sunflower ......................: 532,170 512,940 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 4,139,980 2,858,970 Upland .......................: 4,080,490 2,802,400 American Pima ................: 59,490 56,580 Sugarbeets .....................: 460,290 456,210 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 376,200 Tobacco ........................: (NA) 75,930 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ......................: 150,710 145,360 Dry edible beans ...............: 477,530 468,190 Dry edible peas ................: 390,930 380,810 Lentils ........................: 220,960 211,650 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...........................: (NA) 21,980 Maple syrup ....................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ......................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 12,670 Potatoes .......................: 390,530 388,580 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 4,940 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2023 and 2024 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2024 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 3.90 4,028,680 Corn for grain .........................: 11.13 389,694,460 Corn for silage ........................: 45.03 117,928,570 Hay, all 2/ ............................: 5.04 107,745,420 Alfalfa ..............................: 7.16 45,283,030 All other ............................: 4.15 62,462,390 Oats ...................................: 2.46 828,010 Proso millet ...........................: 1.92 443,890 Rice ...................................: 8.57 9,901,510 Rye ....................................: 2.02 263,540 Sorghum for grain ......................: 3.26 8,071,090 Sorghum for silage .....................: 29.08 4,518,690 Wheat, all 2/ ..........................: 3.27 49,313,930 Winter ...............................: 3.40 33,958,140 Durum ................................: 2.49 1,614,670 Other spring .........................: 3.09 13,741,130 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2.01 1,885,770 Cottonseed .............................: (X) 3,436,420 Flaxseed ...............................: 1.16 75,210 Mustard seed ...........................: 0.70 67,720 Peanuts ................................: 4.19 2,671,670 Rapeseed ...............................: 2.25 9,180 Safflower ..............................: 1.16 59,230 Soybeans for beans .....................: 3.40 113,343,930 Sunflower ..............................: 2.00 1,026,720 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ .........................: 0.95 2,707,180 Upland ...............................: 0.94 2,640,340 American Pima ........................: 1.18 66,840 Sugarbeets .............................: 70.05 31,956,490 Sugarcane ..............................: 81.42 30,632,000 Tobacco ................................: 2.58 196,160 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 1.47 214,190 Dry edible beans .......................: 2.32 1,084,540 Dry edible peas ........................: 2.15 820,370 Lentils ................................: 1.23 260,450 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: 2.15 47,190 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) 20,900 Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) 302,390 Peppermint oil .........................: 0.10 1,280 Potatoes ...............................: 51.45 19,992,090 Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.14 700 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2023 and 2024 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2023-2024 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2023 : 2024 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons: 327 340 Lemons ..........................1,000 tons: 1,116 836 Oranges .........................1,000 tons: 2,487 2,772 Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons: 971 904 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ..........million pounds: 9,910.0 Apricots ..............................tons: 32,400 Avocados ..............................tons: Blueberries, Cultivated .......1,000 pounds: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .....1,000 pounds: Cherries, Sweet .......................tons: 371,000 Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds: 203.0 Coffee (Hawaii) ...............1,000 pounds: Cranberries .........................barrel: 7,620,000 : Dates .................................tons: Grapes ................................tons: 6,285,000 Kiwifruit (California) ................tons: Nectarines (California) ...............tons: Olives (California) ...................tons: Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds: Peaches ...............................tons: 543,000 Pears .................................tons: 645,000 Plums (California) ....................tons: Prunes (California) ...................tons: Raspberries, all .............1,000 pounds: Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds: 2,600,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons: Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds: Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds: 271,450 Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 760,000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2022-2023 and 2023-2024. Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2023 and 2024 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2023-2024 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2023 : 2024 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ................................: 296,650 308,440 Lemons ....................................: 1,012,420 758,410 Oranges ...................................: 2,256,170 2,514,720 Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 880,880 820,100 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ........................: 4,495,100 Apricots ..................................: 29,390 Avocados ..................................: Blueberries, Cultivated ...................: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .................: Cherries, Sweet ...........................: 336,570 Cherries, Tart ............................: 92,080 Coffee (Hawaii) ...........................: Cranberries ...............................: 345,640 : Dates .....................................: Grapes ....................................: 5,701,660 Kiwifruit (California) ....................: Nectarines (California) ...................: Olives (California) .......................: Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................: Peaches ...................................: 492,600 Pears .....................................: 585,130 Plums (California) ........................: Prunes (California) .......................: Raspberries, all ..........................: Strawberries ..............................: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 1,179,340 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............: Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................: Pecans, in-shell ..........................: 123,130 Pistachios (California) ...................: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 689,460 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2022-2023 and 2023-2024. February Weather Summary Like December 2023, February featured record-shattering monthly warmth across much of the central United States, including portions of the Plains and Midwest. Monthly temperatures averaged at least 10�F above normal from the northern and central Plains into the Great Lakes States. Consistent, early-season warmth extended to other areas, including the Northwest, Northeast, and mid-South. In fact, slightly cooler-than-normal February conditions were generally limited to Florida's peninsula, as well as parts of California and the Desert Southwest. The net result of the lack of wintry weather was to accelerate the spring development of a variety of Southern crops, including winter grains and budding or blooming fruits. During a particularly notable warm spell in late February, winter wheat broke dormancy (or was actively growing) across roughly the southern half of the Nation, leaving the crop potentially vulnerable to any sharp spring cold snaps. However, through late February, wheat continued to overwinter well, with crop conditions mostly steady or improving since autumn 2023. Notably, Kansas reported the most significant improvement in winter wheat rated good to excellent between November 26 and February 25, from 32 to 57 percent. During the same period, Kansas noted a corresponding decrease in wheat rated very poor to poor, from 32 to 13 percent. Other states observing a double-digit increase in winter wheat rated good to excellent between late November and late February included North Carolina (from 71 to 89 percent), Oklahoma (from 53 to 70 percent), Nebraska (from 49 to 60 percent), and Michigan (from 46 to 57 percent). Meanwhile, Montana-which dealt with frigid mid-January weather and mostly below-average winter snowfall-experienced the greatest decline in winter wheat rated good to excellent (from 58 to 45 percent) during the 3-month period ending in late February. "Snow drought" also extended into parts of the upper Midwest, leading to concerns regarding lack of soil moisture recharge and potential spring and summer water shortages for rain-fed summer crops. Despite the concerns related to lack of snow, national drought coverage dipped to 19.46 percent by February 13, according to the Drought Monitor, down from more than 40 percent as recently as October 2023 and the lowest since May 30, 2023. In much of the West, however, stormy weather in January and February helped to boost high-elevation snowpack, following a slow start to the winter wet season. According to the California Department of Water Resources, the average water equivalency of the Sierra Nevada snowpack climbed nearly 10 inches during the month to top 18 inches, approximately 80 percent of normal for the end of February. Farther north, however, significantly below-average snowpack was observed at the end of February in much of Montana and Washington, as well as northern sections of Idaho and Wyoming. Late in the month, record-setting warmth, accompanied by low humidity levels and high winds, contributed to devastating wildfires across Texas' northern panhandle and environs. Many of the fires, which started on February 26 or 27, were ignited in the Canadian River drainage basin. Soon, the Smokehouse Creek Fire-east and northeast of Lake Meredith-became the largest wildfire in modern Texas history, scorching nearly 1.1 million acres, not including additional acreage in western Oklahoma. During the late-month warm spell, dozens of all-time February and winter record-high temperatures were established across the Plains and Midwest. On February 27, for the first time ever in a winter month, St. Louis, Missouri (86�F), topped the 85-degree mark and Quincy, Illinois (80�F), achieved an 80-degree reading. On the same date in Michigan, readings of 70�F or above were observed for the first time ever on a December-February day in Saginaw (74�F), Grand Rapids (73�F), Traverse City (73�F), and Alpena (70�F). February Agricultural Summary February was warmer than normal for most of the Nation. Large parts of the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains recorded temperatures 12�F or more above normal. In contrast, most of the Florida peninsula, as well as parts of California and the Southwest, were moderately cooler than normal for the month. Much of the western half of the Nation recorded higher than average amounts of precipitation for February. Parts of the Central Plains, Rockies, and Southwest, as well as locations in the Pacific Northwest, recorded at least twice the normal amount of precipitation. Locations along the Northern California Coast recorded at least 18 inches of precipitation for the month. In contrast, except for parts of the Appalachians and South, most of the eastern half of the Nation was drier than normal. Crop Comments Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is estimated at 33.8 million tons, up 2 percent from the previous forecast but down 3 percent from last season. Producers harvested 929,600 acres for sugar and seed during the 2023 crop year, down 1 percent from last month and down slightly from last season. Yields for sugar and seed averaged 36.3 tons per acre, up 0.7 ton from last month but down 1.0 ton from last season. Grapefruit: The United States 2023-2024 grapefruit crop is forecast at 340,000 tons, down 2 percent from the previous forecast but up 4 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida forecast, at 2.20 million boxes (94,000 tons), is down 8 percent from the previous forecast but up 22 percent from the last season. California and Texas grapefruit production forecasts were carried forward from the previous forecast. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 904,000 tons, down less than 1 percent from the previous forecast and down 7 percent from the last season's final utilization. The Florida tangerine and mandarin forecast, at 500,000 boxes (24,000 tons), is down 9 percent from the last forecast but is up 4 percent from last year. The California tangerine and mandarin forecast was carried forward from the previous forecast. Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the March 1 forecast was conducted in Florida. In August and September last year, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree was determined. In August and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which are combined with the previous components to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The Florida Field Office submits its analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the Florida survey data and their analyses to prepare the published March 1 forecast. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published March 1 forecast. Revision policy: The March 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in August. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the March 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the March 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 orange production forecast is 4.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 4.8 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 8.4 percent. Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for oranges of the differences between the March 1 forecast and the final estimate. Changes between the March 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20-years have averaged 203,000 tons, ranging from 7,000 tons to 733,000 tons. The March 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 8 times and above 12 times. This does not imply that the March 1 forecast for oranges this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Reliability of March 1 Crop Production Forecasts [Based on data for the past twenty years] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : : : Difference between forecast : : : and final estimate : : :---------------------------------------------- : :90 percent : Production : Years Crop : Root mean :confidence :---------------------------------------------- :square error: interval : : : : Below : Above : : : Average : Smallest : Largest : final : final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ---- percent --- ------- thousands ------ number : Oranges ..................tons: 4.8 8.4 203 7 733 8 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov Chris Hawthorn, Acting Chief, Crops Branch........................................... (202) 720-2127 Travis Thorson, Acting Head, Field Crops Section..................................... (202) 720-2127 Irwin Anolik - Crop Progress and Condition...................................... (202) 720-7621 Joshua Bates - Hemp, Oats, Soybeans............................................. (202) 690-3234 Natasha Bruton - Barley, Cotton System Consumption and Stocks, Grain Crushings.. (202) 690-1042 David Colwell - Fats and Oils, Flour Milling Products........................... (202) 720-8800 Michelle Harder - County Estimates, Hay......................................... (202) 690-8533 James Johanson - Rye, Wheat..................................................... (202) 720-8068 Greg Lemmons - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet..................................... (202) 720-9526 Becky Sommer - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum................................. (202) 720-5944 Travis Thorson - Sunflower, Other Oilseeds...................................... (202) 720-7369 Travis Thorson - Peanuts, Rice.................................................. (202) 720-2127 Fleming Gibson, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section................... (202) 720-2127 Deonne Holiday - Almonds, Carrots, Coffee, Cranberries, Garlic, Onions, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco............................................................... (202) 720-4288 Bret Holliman - Apricots, Chickpeas, Nectarines, Peaches, Snap Beans, Sweet Corn, Tomatoes................................................................. (202) 720-7235 Robert Little - Blueberries, Cabbage, Dry Beans, Lettuce, Macadamia, Maple Syrup, Pears, Raspberries, Spinach............................................. (202) 720-3250 Krishna Rizal - Artichokes, Asparagus, Celery, Grapefruit, Kiwifruit, Lemons, Mandarins and tangerines, Mint, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges, Pistachios............... (202) 720-5412 Chris Singh - Apples, Cucumbers, Hazelnuts, Potatoes, Pumpkins, Squash, Strawberries, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes.......................... (202) 720-4285 Antonio Torres - Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Grapes, Green Peas, Honeydews, Lentils, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Walnuts, Watermelons.............. (202) 720-2157 Chris Wallace - Avocados, Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cauliflower, Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Hops, Papayas, Pecans............................ (202) 720-4215 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov. Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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