Soybeans are trading with fractional to 3 cent gains so far on Friday AM trade. Bulls posted higher trade on Thursday with contracts up 4 to 6 cents in most front months, despite a weaker start to the shortened session. CmdtyView’s national front month Cash Bean price was up a penny at $9.43 3/4. Soymeal futures were back down 80 cents to $2.20/ton on the day, with Soy Oil futures 103 to 117 points higher so far on the session. There were reports that the Biden Administration was going issue some short-term guidance released on the 45Z tax credits today. Crude oil futures are up $2.63/barrel this morning, to help the bean oil market push higher.

The weekly Export Sales report has been delayed until this morning. Traders are looking for 0.4 to 1.3 MMT of 2024/25 soybean sales, with 0-100,000 MT for 2025/26 in the week of January 2. Meal sales are estimated at 150,000 to 400,000 MT, with bean oil at 20,000 to 60,000 MT.

The next 7 days looks drier for much of Argentina and southern Brazil, with the 8-14 day period looking wetter for both out to January 20-25

USDA will release a slew of reports on Friday, with the trade looking for us bean yield to be down 0.1 bpa to 51.6 bpa. Production is seen down 8 mbu to 4.453 bbu, as harvested acres are estimated to be slightly higher from the November report. The Grain Stocks report will also be released with estimates at 3.231 bbu, 231 mbu above December 1, 2023. The WASDE report is estimated to show US ending stocks at 457 mbu.

On the world side analysts are looking for the Brazilian crop to be up 1.28 MMT to 170.28 MMT, with the Argentina crop seen down just slightly MMT at 51.91 MMT. Ending stocks for the world are seen at 132.20 MMT, an increase of 0.33 MMT from December. 

Jan 25 Soybeans  closed at $9.92 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents, currently unch

Nearby Cash  was $9.43 1/2, up 4 1/2 cents,

Mar 25 Soybeans  closed at $9.99, up 4 1/2 cents, currently up 2 1/4 cents

Jul 25 Soybeans  closed at $10.23 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents, currently up 1 3/4 cents