Soybeans Rallying as Trade Tensions Ease Over Weekend
Soybeans are rallying early on Monday, as contracts are up 16 to 20 cents. Bulls were gaining ground ahead of the weekend meeting with the US and China, as contracts were up 5 to 8 cents. July slipped back 6 ¼ cents on the week, with November unchanged. Friday’s preliminary open interest was up 4,602 contracts. There was just 1 delivery issued against May futures on Friday night. The cmdtyView Cash Bean price was up 6 3/4 cents to $10.00 1/4. Soymeal futures mixed, up 60 cents in some deferreds to 60 cents lower in the nearbys, as July was down $2.80 last week. Soy Oil futures were up 12 to 29 points at the close, with July slipped 86 points on the week. There were no deliveries issued against May soybean meal on Friday night, with 1 issued for bean oil.
The meeting between US and China trade reps saw progress, as an announcement overnight showed a drop in tariffs by 115% for each country. The US dropped their rate to 30% on Chinese goods, while China cut theirs to 10%.
CFTC data showed managed money cutting 16,332 contracts from their net long position in soybean futures and options to just 21,870 contracts by Tuesday. In soybean meal futures and options, they were a record net short at 103,457 contracts.
Ahead of the this afternoon’s WASDE release, analysts surveyed by Reuters are looking for the World Ag Outlook Board to take the US soybean yield to 52.5 bpa. Production is seen as totaling 4.338 billion bushels. Old crop ending stocks are expected to total 369 million bushels, a 6 mbu reduction from last month. New crop’s first projection is estimated to total 362 mbu.
The monthly WASDE is estimated to tally Brazil production up 0.17 MMT to 169.17 MMT. Argentina output is expected to be tallied at 49.25 MMT, vs the 49 MMT in April. For the world carryout numbers, traders are looking for 2024/25 soybeans to be steady at 122.5 MMT, with new crop at 126.02 MMT.
May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.44, up 7 1/4 cents, currently up 16 cents
Nearby Cash was $10.00 1/4, up 6 3/4 cents,
Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.51 3/4, up 6 3/4 cents, currently up 17 1/4 cents
Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.30 1/2, up 5 1/2 cents, currently up 19 1/4 cents
New Crop Cash was $9.67 1/4, up 5 1/2 cents,
On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.